Can Profit Be Made From 2nd To SP Fav Offers?
What Does SP FAV Mean?
The SP Fav is a term associated with racing, whether it be horse racing or greyhound racing. Every race that is run, there is a runner that has the best chance of winning. The Favourite (Fav).
The odds tend to fluctuate during the run up to the race. This is due to the amount of money being placed on each selection. This causes the odds to either drift (get larger) or shorten (get smaller).
Due to the fluctuation in odds, the favourite at 9 a.m. may not necessarily be the favourite when the race starts at 4 p.m. for example.
What Does SP Mean?
SP stands for the Starting Price – the odds of the selection when the race starts.
What Are The Bookmakers Offers?
Bookmakers regularly run free bet offers that require your runner to finish 2nd to the SP Fav. These offers are usually available for greyhound and horse racing. The value of the bet is dependent on the individual bookmaker. These offers are existing customer bets offered more or less every day.
2nd To SP Offers – Are They Worthwhile?
An investigation into the statistics is the best route to take when determining whether this type of offer is worthwhile completing and if so, what is the best strategy to approach it.
A sample of 82 races spanning one week was analysed where this offer was available. These races were split into two categories – 8 runners or less and 9+ runners.
Races With 9+ Runners
Of the 82 races, 31 had 9+ runners (37.8%). There were 6 (19.4%) SP Fav wins in the 31 races. There was a 3.23% chance of the 2nd Fav finishing 2nd to the SP Fav in these races.
The maximum probability of picking any horse to finish 2nd in a race with 9+ runners is 12.5%. This probability will reduce as the field gets larger.
This gives an overall 0.75% chance of picking a runner to finish 2nd to the SP Fav in a race with 9+ runners.
Races With 8 Runners Or Less
Of the 82 races, 51 had 8 runners or less (62.2%). There was a significantly higher chance of the SP FAV winning. This happened on 25 occasions (49% chance). Similarly, there was a greater chance of the 2nd Fav finishing 2nd to the SP Fav. This occurred 7 times which gives a 13.73% chance. Another point to note is that there was a 7.3% chance of picking the second placed runner from 7 selections.
Looking at the data, backing a selection in an event with 8 runners or less will statistically give a much greater chance of triggering a free bet offer. There isn’t much between backing any horse and backing the 2nd Fav in the races with 8 runners or less so it might be worthwhile backing a runner that gives the lowest qualifying loss.
- Stick to small field races – 8 runners or less.
- If the field has two short priced favourites and the rest are all long odds, it may be worthwhile backing the 2nd Fav.
- If the field is tight e.g. no obvious favourite, then it is advisory to take the runner that produces the lowest qualifying loss.
Proceeding with this betting strategy will require discipline and careful selections. 2nd to the SP Fav betting is not the easiest matched betting method but can be profitable is done correctly.